A new report authored by former UK Health Secretary Alan Milburn presents a stark view of the scale and complexity of the challenge of rising numbers of young people not in education, employment or training – NEETs. Commissioned by the Department for Work and Pensions, this independent report states that: “Youth disengagement is fast becoming a strategic economic risk for Britain.” The report raises issues highly relevant to Northern Ireland, especially at a time when support for some youth employment programmes is under threat, due to proposed cuts and changes to programmes delivered by the voluntary and community sector.
Young people and work: interim report highlights the personal impact on the lives of the one million 16–24-year-olds who now are classified as NEETs across the UK, and the wider social and economic risks if this scale of disengagement is allowed to continue. Milburn’s review will produce policy recommendations in the autumn, which will seek to shape UK government policy and could have further valuable insights to offer Northern Ireland.
The numbers and why they matter
Across the UK 13.5% of 16–24-year-olds are now classified as NEETs – an increase of 1pp from last year. In Northern Ireland the number of NEETs at the start of 2026 was estimated at 23,000, 11.6% of the age group. Across the UK and in NI the NEET rate has risen significantly since the end of the pandemic.
It is important to note that this is not a new problem. For generations in the UK between 10-17% of young people fell into the NEET category, with a peak following the financial crash in 2008. However, the basis of Milburn’s report is a concern that this trend is now “more entrenched because it is less responsive to cyclical economic improvements”. This is reflected in the declining proportion of NEETs who are unemployed and actively seeking work (approx. 40%), and the majority who are now economically inactive and not seeking work. These young people are further from the labour market and more likely to suffer serious declines in life chances.
There is also a concern expressed in the report that the UK NEET rate has diverged sharply from similar economies: “the UK now sits above the average youth NEET rate for high-income countries, the EU and the OECD.” Notably, the report records that UK NEET rate is now twice that of Ireland, a sharp divergence over recent years, which highlights the lessons NI and UK policymakers could learn from Ireland’s approach to skills, education and other policies.
The report makes the case for why work matters, especially for young people:
This review unashamedly extols the virtues of work. Not any work, at any price, under any conditions. But good work. Work that gives structure to the day, purpose to the week, confidence to the person and contribution to the country. Work is not only about income, although income matters. It is about connection. It is about self-respect. It is about independence. For young people especially, the first steps into work are often the first steps into adult life.
No easy answers: policy implications
Within Northern Ireland many of the policy levers to tackle these issues are devolved, but key elements of tax, social security, other policies and funding mechanisms are set, or framed, by central government. Solutions will sit across government at local, regional and UK level – touching on policies relating to schools, further and higher education, apprenticeships, training, employment policy, labour market regulation, welfare and social security, investment and growth strategies, social cohesion, and health.
Approaches to social media and technology will also be central to policy responses. As the report discusses, many young people themselves reflect that smartphones, and social media in particular, has had a negative, isolating, impact on their well-being and education.
Popular media narratives about the rising number of NEETs in recent years tend to look for answers with regards to welfare incentives, smartphones, or a supposed lack of resilience among young people. While it is clear that issues around a lack of preparedness for work and rising levels of issues related to anxiety, and other mental health challenges, are part of the picture for cohorts of NEETs, the Milburn report foregrounds just how hostile the contemporary labour market is for many young people:
Over the past 20 years, the number of mid- and lower-skilled jobs in the economy has fallen by around 1.6 million, while higher-skilled jobs have grown by around 6.3 million.
The decline in entry-level jobs extends to a steep fall in jobs available in hospitality and other traditional ‘Saturday’ jobs. As a result, many young people are caught in the Catch-22 of needing experience to attain first jobs, blocked from gaining the ‘soft skills’ and confidence-building experience of part-time employment. The actual experience of applying for jobs is a further dispiriting and isolating reality for many young people, with multiple online job applications often left unanswered. Better tailoring of support for young people attempting to navigate this indifferent environment will be key to improving outcomes.
An important debate centres on the cost for employers of recruiting young people. The recent increases in the national minimum wage for young people, at the same time as an increase in employers’ national insurance contributions, have been cited by many employers as a driver of the NEET rate. These recent increased costs in hiring young staff are undoubtedly significant, but cannot be blamed alone for the NEET increase, especially when we look at the long-term trends in the labour market that predate the changes. Alan Milburn will have to assess if the costs of hiring are a significant contributing factor to the trend. Then ultimately it is for government to balance the impact of the tax burden and costs on employers, with employers’ rights, the cost of living, and the fragile public finances.
The background of the young people who end up outside of employment, training or education is often shaped by many deep-rooted inequalities. The report specifically notes that care leavers, carers, young mothers and young offenders “face acute risk of becoming NEET”. School preparedness at 4/5 years of age is also a stark predictor of future NEET status. Providing greater opportunities for young people will require tackling issues in education from early primary school onwards, and greater monitoring of pupils at risk of disengaging from school. Declining school attendance figures since the pandemic should be another flashing warning light for those concerned with this issue.
There is also a need to improve the pathways available for those young people not seeking to attend university. The report highlights the failure to create sufficient pathways to vocational training and employment.
A generational challenge
Finally, the report has stark evidence of how poor health has changed the profile of NEETs: “44% of NEET young people reported a work limiting health condition. This has risen from 26% in 2015.” Part of this trend has been the rising level of mental health conditions that are limiting work, which has occurred alongside significant increases in neurodevelopmental conditions among NEETs. These trends are complex, are also to be found in many other jurisdictions, and their drivers are not yet fully understood. They require long-term, empathetic, policy responses, and highlight how a successful NEETs strategy engages with the many public policy levers that shape the opportunities and well-being of young citizens.
The report powerfully notes a view of employers who engaged with the research:
Many are desperate to hire them [young people]. What they described was a growing gap between what the workplace demands from day one and what a significant proportion of young applicants are equipped to provide. This gap is not the result of laziness; but of anxiety, of inexperience, of a system that may have given them qualifications, but not the chance to learn how a workplace works before being expected to perform in one.
It is important to place the challenge young people face entering the work force with the other difficulties this generation have inherited – most notably the broken housing market. Too many members of this generation have significant barriers blocking their way to employment and the building blocks of a secure life. Aspects of the Milburn report and its forthcoming recommendations will undoubtedly be contested, but it is to be hoped that it will kick-start serious policy and political debate about how a generation of young people are being failed.
