A new report by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) for the Department for the Economy has brought fresh attention to a long-standing policy debate in Northern Ireland: the ‘brain drain’. Should we be concerned about the number of young people who choose to leave Northern Ireland to study elsewhere? What does it mean for the economy, jobs and outcomes here?
In 2021, Pivotal explored this same topic for our report Should I stay or should I go? Reasons for leaving Northern Ireland for study or work. We put the voices of young people who had left Northern Ireland at the heart of our research, undertaking 88 interviews, and reaching 316 people through a survey. The ESRI’s work undertook a mixed-methods data analysis, interviews and an online survey of 300 students, mostly with those who stayed in NI but also some who left. It’s a thorough and interesting report, including a broad range of data, policy and analysis.
The two studies, with different timeframes and methodologies, offer some common findings and conclusions, as well as some important differences.
Common themes
Both reports clearly find that student mobility is a complex issue, with no single answer or policy prescription. One of the clearest drivers of mobility, however, is opportunity. Talented young people want to find a university course that matches their ambitions and career aspirations, and want to live in places where employment and good, well-paid jobs are available. One participant in Pivotal’s research put it plainly:
“I wanted to become a vet and can’t believe you couldn’t do it in Northern Ireland, I’d no choice but to leave”.
Responses to our research clearly highlighted the range of good quality placements available at GB universities, with connections to graduate jobs. One participant said that they felt they had to move so they didn’t “end up scraping around for the limited choices there are at home”.
The ESRI’s report provided valuable new evidence to support these findings, including that one-third of NI graduates are employed in non-graduate roles, showing a clear skills mismatch in our jobs market.
What is also clear across both studies is that the outward flow of students from Northern Ireland is not being complemented or offset by a sufficient inflow of students from elsewhere coming to study here. This stands in stark contrast to other regions which have large numbers of students arriving to offset those who leave. The ESRI’s work highlights the economic and financial impacts for universities here, particularly as students who come to Northern Ireland from GB pay higher fees compared to ‘home students’ from the island of Ireland.
There is also some commonality from both sets of survey respondents about the ‘push factors’ driving students out of Northern Ireland. Pivotal’s survey had over 300 people who had left Northern Ireland, while the ESRI’s survey had just 21 respondents who had left. Both groups placed an emphasis on student experience such as nightlife and social opportunities. As one respondent to the ESRI said:
“I wanted to live away from home to gain independence and experience some cultural differences…”
Areas of difference
The central finding of the ESRI’s report is that outward mobility from Northern Ireland is not unusually high in comparison with other regions of the UK. According to their research, 78% of Northern Irish students study locally, with the other 22% studying elsewhere. Wales has a 71% retention rate, while Scotland and England are at 94% and 96% respectively. But compared to the English regions, such as the East Midlands (25%), North East (46%) and even London (58%), Northern Ireland’s retention is much higher.
A central plank of ESRI’s conclusions is that this comparison with English regions suggests that the ‘brain drain’ from Northern Ireland is not as significant an issue as has been previously thought.
There are other important differences in the ‘push factors’ which are driving that 22% away from Northern Ireland. Pivotal’s survey in 2021 found community relations to be a prominent reason given by students for leaving. One participant said:
“I didn’t apply at home because I wanted to live somewhere less focused on religion and politics…”
In our interviews, poor community relations were echoed as a motivation not to return by people who had chosen to live and work outside Northern Ireland after graduation.
Similarly, many of Pivotal’s survey respondents said that unstable and ineffective government here played a major part in their decision to move away:
“I don’t hear anything about the big issues, you know jobs, affordable housing, human rights stuff. It’s literally flags, language and point scoring. I got fed up with it and knew I’d have to leave to get away from all that crap.”
The ESRI recognises these findings, but the issues appeared with less frequency and prominence among their survey respondents who left Northern Ireland. This points to important methodological and temporal differences, which are noted in their report. Our survey (n=316) was targeted at those who had left Northern Ireland, whereas the ESRI survey had only 21 respondents who had left. This gave the Pivotal report a strong evidence base for analysing ‘push factors’, while the ESRI had a greater insight into why students choose to remain in Northern Ireland.
Pivotal’s work was also conducted in 2020-21, not long after the NI Assembly and Executive returned after a long period of collapse, and was published not long before another protracted collapse. Political instability around that time may have been a bigger influence on students’ thinking then compared to when the ESRI’s research was taking place.
It is also worth considering how many students return to Northern Ireland after their studies. In Pivotal’s survey, 88% of students had no plans to come back to Northern Ireland after graduation. This is an important finding in itself, showing the intentions of young people from here seeking new opportunities. However, the ESRI notes that there is insufficient evidence to assess “whether and when” people return. Some of their research participants suggested that many graduates do eventually return to Northern Ireland, particularly as they consider starting a family. Others also noted that people who leave and then return could “contribute to normalisation of community relations” by bringing their experiences of other places back.
What this means for policy
Taking the two reports together, there are a number of policy issues to consider:
1. Skills and employment mix: The high number of Northern Irish graduates who are overqualified for their jobs indicates a need to work towards an employment landscape that matches the skills profile of Northern Irish workers.
2. Fixing the inflow: The ESRI’s report in particular concludes that an outflow of students is not necessarily a challenge in and of itself, but that it must be balanced with sufficient numbers of students coming in. This is particularly important as universities in Northern Ireland face increasing financial constraints due to the MaSN cap.
3. Routes to return: Northern Ireland has comparatively lower living costs and a high quality of life. The Executive should consider these and other important ‘pull factors’ to encourage local graduates to return in time. As noted at the time of our 2021 report, the Executive has no strategy in place to encourage talented people to return home.
4. The need for a stronger evidence base: Being able to track students for longer after graduation, rather than for only 15 months, would allow for longer-term trends to be measured.
While these two reports differ in some important ways, both offer valuable insights into a significant policy challenge. Policymakers should consider the findings of both papers and work to make Northern Ireland a place where there are sufficient opportunities for those who choose to stay, those who come to study, and those who come home.
You can read the ESRI's new report here.
