We’ve been given clear reminders over the past few years of how exposed our energy system is. The spike in gas prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed electricity bills to record levels. More recently, instability in the Middle East has again shown how quickly global energy markets can move. You don’t have to look far to see the impact, it shows up directly in our electricity bills.

Part of the reason for that is how the electricity market works. Electricity prices rise when gas prices spike because of marginal pricing. This means the cost of the last unit of power needed to meet demand, usually a gas plant and normally the most expensive type of power generation, sets the price for all electricity, even cheaper renewables.

One way I’ve seen this explained which sums it up well is that marginal pricing is like a penalty shootout, in that renewables take the early penalties, but gas is often the one stepping up for the decisive shot, and its cost decides the result.

That link is what makes Northern Ireland so exposed. But it also points to the solution. The more renewable electricity we have on the system, the less often gas is needed to meet demand, meaning it sets the price less frequently. Over time, that begins to break the link between gas price spikes and electricity bills, insulating consumers from the worst of that volatility.

Northern Ireland can’t control geopolitics or global energy prices. But we are more exposed to them than we need to be. When fossil fuel prices move, our costs move with them. There’s no buffer.

Exposure to risk and the price that flows through to consumers is the problem that energy policy needs to solve. Decarbonisation matters, but one of the biggest benefits of moving to renewables is that it helps stabilise prices and reduce that exposure.

A delivery gap at Stormont

Nearly everyone agrees we need more renewable electricity. The policy thinking is largely in place, and there is broad alignment across government and industry on what needs to happen. But the pace of delivering it hasn’t matched the urgency of the problem.

At Stormont, that gap is becoming more obvious. Policies have been consulted on, refined, and redesigned over a number of years, but getting them over the line is still slow. Legislation drifts, timelines slip.

All these delays come at a cost.

Take the Renewable Electricity Price Guarantee (REPG). This is exactly the kind of policy Northern Ireland needs.  At the moment, NI is one of the few parts of the UK and western Europe without a long-term renewable electricity support scheme in place. That has real consequences. It means weaker investment signals, less price certainty for developers, and fewer projects progressing to delivery. Since the closure of the Northern Ireland Renewables Obligation in 2018, deployment has slowed considerably.

REPG is designed to address that gap. As KPMG recently set out in a report commissioned by RenewableNI, REPG would provide long-term, fixed-price contracts for renewable generation, helping to bring forward investment in domestically produced electricity while reducing exposure to volatile fossil fuel markets.

That matters for a number of reasons.

1. First, energy security. Increasing the share of domestically generated renewable electricity reduces reliance on imported fossil fuels and exposure to global price shocks. RenewableUK’s recent security report highlights that dependence on internationally traded gas leaves systems vulnerable not just to volatile markets, but to disruption from conflict and infrastructure attacks. Renewables change that - they don’t rely on pipelines or shipping routes, and once built, provide a more stable and resilient source of power.

2. Second, price stability. Locking in a portion of electricity supply at predictable prices helps shield consumers from the kind of volatility seen in recent years. It won’t eliminate price swings entirely, but it reduces how much they feed through into bills.

3. Third, investment. Other jurisdictions have used similar schemes to bring forward large-scale renewable deployment and attract capital. Without an equivalent mechanism, NI has struggled to compete on the same terms.

4. And fourth, economic value. It’s important to recognise that the sector is already delivering for Northern Ireland. Renewable electricity is supporting investment, jobs, community funding and business rates, particularly in rural areas. It is also saving consumers money - with analysis showing renewables have reduced electricity costs by £200 million since 2000. More renewables means building on that value.

This isn’t untested policy. The model is well established, and the design work here is already done. What’s missing is the legislation to bring it forward, and time is running out within this Assembly mandate. If the legislation doesn’t come through this year, we’re back to square one, adding delay, damaging investment confidence and leaving consumers exposed to higher electricity prices.

At a time when we need to move quickly to reduce exposure to volatile fossil fuel markets, the way we’re operating feels out of step with the urgency of the moment. The Minister for the Economy has committed to bringing the legislation before the Assembly before the summer recess, it’s critical this timeline does not slip.

Grid delays are already costing us

You can see the impact of delay most clearly in the grid. Adequate development of the electricity network by NIE Networks and SONI will allow for the connection of more low-cost electricity from renewables. As things stand, grid development is too slow and means too often gas is being used to meet demand when it could be met by cleaner, cheaper, local renewable energy if the infrastructure was in place.

This is sometimes used as a reason to slow down renewable deployment. But that gets the sequencing wrong. The system does not need renewables and grid investment to happen one after the other, we need both to move in tandem.

Both take years to deliver. Waiting for the grid to be “ready” before bringing forward new renewable generation isn’t cautious, it just locks in further delay. This isn’t a ‘chicken and egg’ situation, it’s about getting both moving at the same pace.

Renewable generation should be developed alongside network upgrades so capacity is there when the system is ready. Without that, Northern Ireland risks remaining reliant on fossil fuels not because alternatives don’t exist, but because they haven’t been enabled at the same pace.

I’ve written previously for Pivotal Platform about how infrastructure delays are threatening Northern Ireland’s renewable electricity targets. Grid projects like the second North–South Interconnector illustrate the problem. Something widely recognised as critical continues to be delayed, and other key network reinforcements are also slipping further into the future. Revised, longer timelines and increased costs from SONI and NIE Networks for connecting renewable energy projects to the grid is also causing huge frustration and is, ultimately, impacting consumers.

Over a year on from my previous piece, timelines have only slipped further.

Planning continues to slow progress

Planning is part of the same picture. It takes too long, there is too much uncertainty, and decisions can be inconsistent. Projects that should move are getting stuck.

RenewableUK data shows Northern Ireland has the slowest planning timelines in the UK and Ireland, with decisions for major projects often taking several years. Timelines like this make investors more likely to go elsewhere. This has been raised consistently, but improvement has been limited.

Planning reform isn’t about lowering standards, it’s about providing clarity, consistency and reliable timelines so viable projects can actually move.

The real risk is continued exposure

Put all of this together, and the issue becomes clear. Northern Ireland isn’t lacking ambition, it is struggling to execute at pace.

That might have been manageable when energy prices were stable and geopolitical risks felt distant. It isn’t now.

We’ve seen how quickly markets can move. Every delay means continued exposure to those same risks. That’s why getting REPG through matters. Not because it solves everything, but because it is one of the few things that is ready to go and would start to shift the system in the right direction. It would bring forward new renewable generation, improve price stability and demonstrate that Northern Ireland can move from policy design to delivery.

Northern Ireland has the resource, the projects and the industry base. There is still appetite to invest. But momentum matters.

At this point, Stormont needs to progress the legislation needed to deliver REPG, keep pressure on infrastructure delivery and start improving the planning system so projects can move forward.

The longer we wait, the longer we stay exposed and with a system that costs more than it should.

Shane Corcoran is Head of NI Policy at RenewableNI, leading the organisation’s policy work and engagement with key stakeholders on behalf of members. RenewableNI is the voice of the renewable electricity industry in Northern Ireland, representing the majority of companies operating in the sector.